Happy New Week Surfers – Happy New Year Euro!
Yes, for the first time in over a year, EURO/USD burst through the upper limits of our Bearish Channel. The 250 pip bounce last Thursday, off the then Weekly Pivot, means we can finally state with some degree of confidence, that the cross is in a Bullish Trend!!! It would seem the change of season has coincided with a change of fortune for EURO, which eclipsed Northern Summer mid 1.27 highs, to close the week above 1.28. No trading for us as it was Friday (NFP day at that).
The skyrocket of last Thursday/Friday should have us believing that EUR/USD is now completely overbought – but IS IT? Certainly I am looking for Price Action to pullback to the as yet untested (since Thursday) Daily Pivot, now some 60 pips to the South. Weekly is in close attendance however (barely 20 pips below). The big issue is with Monthly, lagging a further 255 pips astern. Whilst not ideal for the Bulls, this is by no means an unheard of situation so I’m not of the opinion a huge retracement is a fait accompli. My greatest concern today from a trading perspective is a lack of Trendlines. No Trendlines = no Hotspots = no Trades! Price Action will need to be creative today to deliver some.
The Day Ahead
Definitely a NSNL (No Short/No Long) situation until I see Price Action pullback to Daily Pivot AND a Trendline appears. Could very well be a slow start to my trading week but it’s only early!
High Impact News
Have a happy