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12 SEP 2012 | Free Daily Analysis | EURUSD : FASTEN SEATBELTS/TURBULENCE AHEAD

G’day Surfer’s – got the Longboard out?

Yesterday’s Report

Somewhat surprisingly, there was a bit of activity in the market as Price Action continued the Bull Run. With EUR/USD getting to the overbought stage, our ‘A’ Signals found a respectable Secret Surfing The Pips Candle Pattern in an attempt to trade the pullback to Daily Pivot (totally counter trend of course). Depending on your Broker – you either banked the 23 pips on offer or (as with our broker) had your stops taken by 0.3 of one pip. That’s trading and we donated 15 pips to the broker @ 1/4 stake. At day’s end, Price Action elevated EURO/USD to a four month high and approaching 1.29!! Is it a case of “buy on rumour / sell on fact? To be fair, Price Action did pretty much as you would expect in a rising market – though I suspect just a tad of the quote is valid.

Technical Analysis

Though I believe it’s almost irrelevant today, for the record: Pivots are in definite Bullish formation although now giving me the wink that EUR/USD is overbought. This depicted by the now 40 plus pips that PA is above Daily Pivot, the 122 pip gap between Daily & Weekly, not forgetting Monthly, languishing a further 255 pips astern. EUR/USD also faces strong resistance just ahead. These factors combine to prevent me contemplating an entry in either direction: Pullback required before Long; Reversal signal before Short. With the expected fireworks early this morning – that’s probably a nice safe play.

The Day Ahead

If I think EUR/USD is overbought at the moment – what then, if today’s Court Ruling goes the ESM’s way?? Mmmm – a good hit followed by a measured rally I believe – think a lot of the buying is already done! Of course if it doesn’t – EURO will need a parachute to give it a soft landing but I have NO IDEA how far from it’s current height, that will be. I suspect a LOOOONNNGGG way! Anything I say here of course, is pure speculation but if I had a preference, it would be on a sailboard, (short & free trading) setting my spinnaker, aboard the first swell of a potential tsunami.

High Impact News

 

10:00am EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling
All Day EUR Dutch Parliamentary Election

Enjoy the show

 

Geoff Pyne | Certified SurfingThePips.com Trader

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