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14 NOV 2012 | Free Daily Analysis | EURUSD : EURO PLAYS HARD TO GET


G’day Surfers – it’s choppy out there.

Yesterday’s Report

EUR/USD continues it’s serpent like slither in a very tight range, making trading a hazardous business right now. Certainly our ‘A’ Signals were struggling yesterday to find acceleration points. The crucial 1.2677 level continues to dissuade Price Action from passing yet draws it nearer, as distance grows between them. This is hardly surprising given the yawning chasm below and the duty 1.2677 performs as guardian to that abyss. Typifying the see sawing nature of the current market, we sought entries in both directions as our ‘A’ signal detector spotted firstly a long entry which barely triggered prior to the see saw tipping in favour of the Bears. According to our strategy, this was a high risk trade so our stake was very small and we suffered only slight ignominy. The second of our A signals gave us the opportunity to join the pending continuation of the Bear Run. This time the see saw stayed firmly with the Bulls and our order failed to trigger. A small dose of medicine in a day where EUR/USD lost 5pips in a 66 pip range.

Technical Analysis

1.2677 refuses to yield and Price Action is once again attempting to find a foothold from which to launch another attack at the stubborn Support Level. The foothold appears to be at DR-1 and recent highs around 1.2727. It’s a scalpers market right now with some reliability in small double tops/bottoms producing reversals back to the middle & better of the range but intraday trends, there are NOT. Pivots are still Bearish (without the market moving they aren’t about to change) but for mine, market has no direction. Daily is again untested as we start our day. There exists weak cases for a breakout of this consolidation in either direction. I will almost certainly await confirmation of that direction when it occurs, by way of a re-test. There is a definite hint of reversal in the air with a potential Inverted H/S forming on intraday charts – I will watch that closely.

The Day Ahead

Of course if Price Action delivers a great setup at a Hotspot – small stakes will again be order of the day, given the risky nature of the current climate. Biggest challenge I have (again) is finding a clean Trendline/Hotspot. Intraday charts are very noisy, reflecting the choppy nature of Price Action and the options for trendlines are incredible – keep it clean!!

Have a winning Wednesday.

Davide Franceschini | Chief Trader and Founder at SurfingThePips.com
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