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16 AUG 2012 | Free Daily Analysis | EURUSD : RIP VAN EURO!

G’day Surfers – never was a fan but what an arm wrestle we are witnessing.

Yesterday’s Report

And the winner of the lottery is…………Shorts. In what was truly a 50-50 call, Price Action marked time for the majority of yesterday, waking from it’s slumber as we anticipated, once only. Whilst conscious, it decided the Dash for Cash would be to the downside and a little over an hour later and with the day’s work done – back to sleep. The “damage” was 70 odd pips. Our strategy couldn’t find a decent setup for the Short but DID find an entry long, after PA went into slumber land. TP1 was achieved just prior to PA’s Dream time but an agonising 10hrs later, a brief waking moment saw Price Action stretch for 22 pips giving those who traded the signal some chance to bank a TP2. Those who sought refuge in sleep themselves, were dragged along for a further 3.5 hrs before being mercifully euthanased at Break Even. At day’s end EURO remained faithful to the recent tiny Average Daily Range shedding 32 pips in the process.

Technical Analysis

We noted yesterday that Price Action had a HUGE task to break the Platoon of resistance it faced and somewhat predictably, task remains incomplete. The fact that the alternative bounce off that resistance has just now taken out the right shoulder of our Bullish signal on M30 may well be significant. The tested Daily Pivot seems keen for PA to fall as well, having again crossed Weekly to resume perfect Bearish formation. We’re now seeing lower highs but the absence of lower lows was suggesting the Market remained in congestion. The break Short in the last hour has removed that constraint & tipped the scales in favour of the Bears. With our Pivots agreeing, there exists ample evidence to adopt a Bearish sentiment. Why am I not convinced?

The Day Ahead

With almost 50 pips of range so far today, roughly 2/3rds of the recent Daily Range has been achieved so I would expect an early rest for Price Action. With reliable Trend Lines a rare commodity this morning and Price Action smothering the only Hotspot I have, I need pullback. For this reason, I’m favouring a re-test of Daily Pivot before any real action. A false breakout of the Support Trend Line may provide me with a counter trend trade to that point. Failing that, EURO will likely be Southbound without me.

Have a great day everyone.

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Geoff Pyne | Certified Trader


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