G’day Surfers – you’ve got to hand it to the EURO!
Despite everything being thrown at it both from a Technical and Fundamental front, EURO stood tall and fought it’s way back from a precipice yesterday. Having begun the day dead on the last line of Support. EUR/USD clawed it’s way back to relative safety, above our Daily Critical Zone (DCZ) @ 1.2909. Like the rest of the trading world – our sentiment was Bearish – UNLIKE most of the trading world – we saw the early Bullish sign (remember the Ascending Triangle? – “Interestingly, an Ascending Triangle #1 (Bullish) has just been broken…….mmmm!” ) This was later confirmed with a Secret Surfing The Pips Candle Pattern at our Resistance Hotspot – BINGO…..Long entry to target! Another perfect lesson of TRADE WHAT YOU SEE – NOT WHAT YOU THINK.
Despite EUROs display of contempt for the situation in which its embroiled, I see little that’s occurred to remove the pressure on the Currency – apart from ONE MAJOR RUMOUR. The ECB has apparently indicated it may cut Cyprus adrift in the interest of the other nation members of Eurozone. My belief is that a confirmation of this rumour will send EUR/USD back to where it was at the end of last week. That’s all speculation of course and reality is that Daily Pivot is untested today, below Price Action. Pivots and Trend remain Bearish though the first #1 of 2 Resistance Trendlines has been broken and re-tested. EUR/USD has a long way to go before being declared Bullish however.
The Day Ahead
Well the first hour will probably give us direction today as both French & German PMI numbers are released. Barring a statement from the ECB we should have a few hours to find an entry. Tough to have a bias today and the reasons that I’m slightly Bearish are: the Trend, DCZ is screaming for a re-test, small descending triangle #2, untested Daily Pivot. Hotspots are right on top of Price Action (which I don’t like) so we may be looking for another, by the time News reaction has settled.
High Impact News
|9:00am||EUR||French Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|9:30am||EUR||German Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|Tentative||EUR||Spanish 10-y Bond Auction|
|3:00pm||USD||Existing Home Sales|
|USD||Philly Fed Manufacturing Index|
Have a great day everyone.