Happy New week Surfers – my humble apologies for the late arrival. I’ve had plenty of time to mirror the market but here’s how I saw it 3.5 hrs ago……
A 100 pip doji day would suggest a relatively non eventful end to the week but from my perspective, the close below the 7 month old Support Trendline #1 was quite significant. No trading for us (it being Friday) but I was very mindful that it was make or break day for EUR/USD.
The significance of the break is that it’s the last real Support for the Cross before a substantial potential fall. To avoid a crash here, some buying needs to take place to get Price Action back above the bespoke Support. Not surprisingly, Price is held up at this level but all Intraday Charts are clearly now in Bearish trends and our Pivots are in perfect Bearish formation. A bounce off the bottom of our Support Trendline #1 would have the Daily Chart in agreement. My focus is on the difficult to ignore, nearby Major Confluence #2 of long term Trendlines as the launch place of a strong move in either direction.
The Day Ahead
Very difficult not to be Bearish EUR/USD, given the evidence above. I believe the final stand for the Bulls (the confluence level) will be a magnet for Price Action so I’m not over keen to get Short, just yet. I’m lacking a tradeable Support Trendline at this stage so the day’s Hotspot is (not to my liking) right on top of current Price Action. If EUR/USD can hang on until the confluence level, I feel there’s a chance the Bulls could resume control – if not, bye bye EURO.
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Have a great week everyone.