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27 FEB 2013 | Free Daily Analysis | EURUSD : SOMETHING’S UP, WITH EURO

G’day Surfers – all quiet on the trading front – but why?

Yesterday’s Report

When NO Hotspot was evident on my charts yesterday, I envisaged a quiet trading day – I got one! Spike to spike, the records will indicate a 103 pip range but trading was confined to within 70 pips and a doji day was the result. Aware that Daily Pivot was untested, we spotted an opportunity to trade that fact but Price Action avoided our entry, the order timing out. Given the incredibly good numbers out of the USA, I’m surprised that EUR/USD is NOT trading around 1.2900 mmmmmm – if it smells fishy, it usually IS.

Technical Analysis

If I’m surprised at the inability of Fundamentals to move the market, I’m certainly not surprised that EUR/USD went into consolidation, after Monday’s crash. Whilst the market contemplates if the mid1.30’s represents an oversold EURO, it has failed to date, to deliver some nice Trendlines to trade. There is reasonable potential in my Support Trendline #1 that unites yesterday’s low with what is currently todays’ but that’s about it. With Daily Pivot tested and leading a perfect Bearish Pivot formation; a raging Bearish short/medium term Trend points to further grief for EURO today BUT – a big 185 pip gap has appeared between Daily & Weekly Pivot.

The Day Ahead

The final technical point above, is counselling me to be very cautious if attempting to ride the Bear Trend any further. Pullback is the missing ingredient, giving me a slightly Short Term Bullish bias. To trade today, I must at this stage, rely on the Support Trendline #1 to display a clear setup. Because my sentiment is totally counter trend, any entry my Hotspot delivers will be traded at small stake, in either direction.

High Impact News

Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
2:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
4:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
USD Pending Home Sales m/m
6:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

Wishing you a Wonderful Wednesday.

Geoff Pyne  

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