G’day Surfers – Happy Hump Day
Magma oozed down the face of EUR/USD yesterday as the rally of the previous week retraced 94 pips (spike to spike). We witnessed the slowing of Bullish momentum on Monday (did we WHAT) and yesterday confirmed that the sellers were ready & able – not quite sure how WILLING they were though. The sell off was quite technical in it’s execution if rather measured. We saw an opportunity to join the second wave of the move and sent the signal. The only High Impact News of the day had us close the order one candle early and as fate would have it, we timed out prior to the order triggering and were forced to watch our cancelled order go to full profit – that’s trading!
Now, everyone’s favourite question: Retracement OR Reversal? Certainly we can deduce that 1.3000 was an unacceptable level for the market currently but I don’t know that buyers will cower and accept that rejection. I’m getting no help from our Pivots (which are mixed still) however and my analysis is based on a poor reversal signal at a not insignificant but not overwhelming, Resistance level. Just the hint of a double top isn’t that compelling as evidence that the Bull’s have disappeared. I’m therefore favouring Retracement and will look at our old favourite 1.2908, which is currently keeping company with Weekly Pivot, to turn this back into Northerly motion.
The Day Ahead
The urgent need for Daily Pivot to be tested was quelled yesterday but the numbers are still in favour of that recurring. As I write my DB, Price Action is 40pips below that objective so it’s of no surprise that I will seek to trade Long as Plan A. Reliable Trendlines have been as scarce as gonads on a gelding however and I am relying on the once broken Support Trendline to provide me with a trading opportunity. We have a provisional Resistance Trendline and Price Action may confirm that or provide an alternative as the day proceeds – we’ll be waiting.
High Impact News
|4:00pm||USD||New Home Sales|