G’day Surfers – Happy Birthday Horses.
Much like Monday, yesterday began like some of the race horses that caused the demise of my bank account – VERY SLOWLY. As if “encouraged” by a dig with the spurs, volatility then sprang into the market and so did we. Our Pattern detector recognised an acceleration point and sure enough, price action quickly delivered a first Take Profit. Those who trade the “A” Signals had the opportunity to bank 20 pips as a 2nd Take Profit but Price Action failed to travel the extra 4 pips to the 1st Resistance Target of DR-1 so Break Even was the most likely result. A beautiful Swing & Relax setup provided our official Trade of the Day & a long entry just above the “A” Signal’s. Again, Take Profit 1 level was achieved quickly, as was our Bank Profit level. The very strong resistance of 1.2334 & our ancient trend line then sent Price Action back to attack our adjusted Stops and the trade closed @ +15. A little unlucky not to get some more in the bank but it’s a very choppy, low liquidity market so we’ll take what it gives.
Price Action is currently headed for a 4th test of 1.2334 where (wait for it) that long forgotten member of our analysis, Monthly Pivot has taken up it’s new residence. All three Pivots now dwell within 100pips, yet are split straight down the middle with Daily lodging almost geometrically dead centre. This, much like the visual appearance of the market is telling me there is NO DIRECTION – a common theme this week. Higher lows, lower highs confirm the congestion. Like yesterday, we are at the pointy end of the Pennant so something should give.
The Day Ahead
With our trend lines so close to Price Action I’ll be favouring a false break initially and wait to pounce on a retest. OK – forced to activate my sentiment, I’ll say Short.
Clearly 1.2334 is the Key level again so a break and re-test survival should see Price Action headed toward 1.2400 but a bounce could be a big one towards 1.2100.
Make sure your horse gets a lump of sugar – eh!
Geoff Pyne | Certified SurfingThePips.com Trader
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