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08 OCT 2012 | Free Daily Analysis | EURUSD : US BANK HOLIDAY – RELAX

Happy New Week Surfers,
QE111, “Surprise” 4yr Low Unemployment number……….mmmm……..must be an Election coming??

Yesterday’s Report

Absolutely no surprise that EUR/USD flatlined pre – NFP data release and the forecast 114,000 new jobs had little effect on the market except to not hinder the resumption of the rally towards 1.3000. Indeed this historically significant level was broken (Price Action spiking at 1.3051) briefly, but pulled back to settle and close the week just above 1.3000, but below our long term S/R level of 1.3033. It being Friday & NFP day, no trading for us.

Technical Analysis

The end of the Bearsih pullback post EURO’S 8 week rally was a somewhat muted affair for mine. A less than 200 pip rally over the week is hardly exuberant buying. To be fair, if was NFP week which makes analysing the rally, a little cloudy. In essence, Price Action was like a moth to a flame in ascending on 1.30. In fact we’ve had a break and importantly, now a re-test of that number which I see as a crucial level today. Should it and certainly our 1.3033 level hold, I would expect¬† Price Action to “fly” to our next flame at 1.3115 & in extension, to 1.3170. A break below, should see 1.2908 again the flavour of the Month. I’m with the Bulls however, as are our Pivots, with Daily already tested. In fact Asia Session seems to be seeing strength in USD following Friday’s numbers!

The Day Ahead

Bank Holidays in Tokyo & New York should see a mainly consolidating market with little in the way of reliable Price Action. Eurogroup Finance Ministers have their get together today and may move the market if anything substantial ensues.  As usual, we will stay on the sidelines on a US Bank Holiday and await our week to start tomorrow. In keeping with that strategy, there will be no Daily Webinar today.

High Impact News

All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings

Though a little of a false start, I hope your week is full of fun & good fortune.


Davide Franceschini | Chief Trader and Founder at SurfingThePips.com

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