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18 SEP 2012 | Free Daily Analysis | EURUSD : HOW “LONG” TILL PULLBACK?


G’day Surfers – hope you caught the early wave,

Yesterday’s Report

Well, for us it was a classic case of trade what you see, not what you think. We were waiting for a false break of our Resistance Trendline, to give us a setup to “pinch” the pips on offer if Price Action pulled back to Daily Pivot. Instead, a very nice false break of our Support Trendline gave us a double StP Secret Candle Pattern entry and we got our pips going LONG. The pullback to accommodate this setup wasn’t as strong as we were looking for but the entry signal was too strong to ignore. As always, our exit was first resistance but we did a little better as Price Action spiked beyond the 1.3140 exit and we bagged a TP1 +7 & TP2 +36 for a 43pip haul. On a doji day that ranged 88 pips – I’LL TAKE IT!

Technical Analysis

Price Action seems to be forming a habit of side-stepping Daily Pivot and that’s the case again, as the market refuses to budge from a tight range surrounding our major S/R level of 1.3115. Formidable Resistance is present just above Price Action in the bespoke 1.3115, Daily Pivot and a double top, courtesy of yesterday’s spike. Pivots and trend are extremely Bullish of course and still no substantial pullback has occurred. These factors combine to AGAIN, make it very difficult to go long but considering the strength of the rally, swimming against the tide Short, is also a perilous prospect. I am suffering as well, from the extremely contagious Trendlinus Invisibilus. An imperfect rectangle was the best way to contain Price Action early today, in the hope that it’s boundaries provide us with a Hotspot. A breakout in the last hour will test that theory.

The Day Ahead

With Price Action below Daily Pivot and a super strong Bullish Trend, you would think Long is the way to go. The double top and the presence of 1.3115 between Price Action & DP is compelling evidence for the pullback we still seek however. It’s close enough to 50/50 for mine so I will allow Price Action to do it’s thing – find a Hotspot then give us a setup. Over to you PA.

High Impact News

11:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Have a good one,

Geoff Pyne | Certified SurfingThePips.com Trader

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