I would like to say how great it is to be writing today’s Brief but must confess a little of me remains in the tropical paradise of the Fijian Islands where the last week has been quite blissful. Payment for such luxuries is necessary however so let’s see if we can find some pips.
Clearly our holiday has meant no trading for the past week and I spent a little of yesterday reacquainting myself with the market and it’s direction. I note that after the bullish move we tried to catch last Tuesday, EURO has yielded ground once more to again take a breather amidst a very strong support level between 1.2450 & 1.2500.
The big picture tells us that since June 1st, EURO has tried ever so hard to claw back a disastrous May, with limited success. Certainly, the near month long bullish trend appears to have reversed as we are now seeing in the main, lower highs & lows on all intraday charts. Indeed our Pivotal family are in perfect Bearish formation BUT, junior (Daily Pivot) seems to be straying (120 pips) from the flock Weekly & Monthly. Our Shepherd (Price Action) gets a little concerned with this behaviour most often and will no doubt have an outstretched crook, seeking to reel junior toward the relative safety of the flock. So whilst the trend as always is our friend, there may well lurk a wily wolf, somewhere below Price Action. Or even above!!
The Day Ahead
Solely for this reason, I have a slightly short term Bullish sentiment, whilst being acutely aware of the Bearish Trend that prevails. As we never trade our sentiment, the usual rules will apply as the day unfolds. Price Action has been courting our Intratrend Resistance Trendline for sometime today and I need to see it pull away from or break this line before I can trade it. Our Support Trendline is an old friend, looking a little weary I must admit but Old Faithful deserves one more chance to deliver before we put him out to pasture. These lines have almost met at the pointy end of the pennant they formed so clearly one or both will be broken today but it’s going to be a little tricky catching the break. Let’s play it by our rules.
Have a great day
Geoff Pyne | Certified SurfingThePips.com Trader
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